India's Coking Coal Import Dependence

Imagine an industry, steel, where India has achieved genuine, hard-won independence in iron ore, covered elsewhere on this site, and increasingly in specialty steel manufacturing capability, yet remains roughly 90% dependent on imports for coking coal, the specific type of coal, distinct from thermal coal used for power generation, covered under Power elsewhere on this site, needed as a reducing agent in traditional blast furnace steel production.

This dependence carries genuinely enormous long-term financial exposure, as India's steel capacity expands toward its 300 million tonne 2030-31 target, covered elsewhere on this site through the National Steel Policy, coking coal imports are projected to climb to 160 million tonnes by 2030 alone, with one independent analysis projecting a cumulative $1.2 trillion import bill and 19.5 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions over the next four decades if India continues expanding capacity through the traditional coal-based blast furnace route.

This exposure exists specifically because India's steel industry has been built predominantly under what analysts describe as a 'build now, decarbonise later' model, young, coal-based blast furnace capacity constructed rapidly to meet growing demand, locking in decades of continued coking coal dependence before genuinely viable, cost-competitive alternatives were commercially ready to replace it.

This dependence connects directly to the green steel transition covered elsewhere on this site, the entire economic case for hydrogen-based steel production rests substantially on avoiding exactly this coking coal import exposure, meaning India's coking coal dependence isn't just a supply chain vulnerability, it's the specific financial and environmental cost the green steel transition is explicitly trying to help India avoid before that $1.2 trillion projected exposure becomes genuinely locked in through continued blast furnace capacity expansion.